Urban Art Association

Forecast for a Bad Auction Month For Banksy , by raiden on Oct 16, 2008 7:11:30 GMT 1, We'll see how this month plays out... but after looking over prices and then looking over the auction calendar, this is starting to look bad... but I'll just concentrate on Banksy for sake of simplification...

First was Lyon & Turnbull's debacle of an auction on the 27th, where a bunch of Banksy's failed to sell - namely 21 wen unsold. I'm looking back over this auction and we're talking bad! 5 of 26 sold... and all for the bottom level of their estimates. Granted, 4 were street pieces that were poorly authenticated, and it was Lyon and Turnbull... but this sale was a bloodbath...

But then Dreweatts was a disappointment... The Banksy wooden statue thing sold for £4,800 when it was estimated at £8,000 -12,000. Monkey Detonator hit the low end of estimate at £40,000... Way low given comparables at auctions at the end of the month - and that this was an early piece from 2000! Plus 4-5 Banky's went unsold... This was another mess of an auction. At a terrible time given the weakness of the market.

But now the rest of the month leading up to Bonhams looks terrible!!

On the 17th Sothebys has a complete set Banksy Kate Moss up for 250,000 – 350,000 GBP... and a 250GBP-350GBP Oil on Canvas Queen Vic. If these sell at those price points, I'll be shocked - for one, the record for a Banksy piece (non Hirst collab) is still 'Space Girl and Bird' at £288,000. These pieces have everything going against them...

Then, Sotheby's has 3 more original Banksy's up at more reasonable prices on the 20th... but also hard sells... First up that day is a "Laugh Now Monkey" at 60,000—80,000 GBP... Only because its the monkey and its sprayed on cast plaster that looks like bricks, do I think it might possibly sell - but is still a toss up with signature on the reverse and the previous price on 'Monkey Detonator.' The lot of 2 "Happy Coppers" will more than likely reach their 20,000GBP estimate - but they are unsigned (albeit original) cumbersome cut outs on cardboard.

Then Christies "Post-War & Contemporary Art Day Sale" on the 21th (5 Banksys) looks like it can go either way. Estimates are a bit high (cheapest being a 12 by 12 Heavy Weaponry stencil for 20,000 GBP) if Sotheby's goes south, this could get ugly.

Finally, comes Bonhams "Urban Art Sale" on the 23rd (9 Banksys - which at least has some grasp of reality with their estimates - but we'll see how the market holds up by this point) by this point, 40 or so Banksys will have come under the auctioneer gavel - with the majority already not having sold (approximately 25 of 35 or so), and realistically by Bonhams... 75% of all Banksys that came up for auction will have not sold! (what a difference a year makes)

Lastly, I should mention the abortion of Phillips Art auction on the 25th (4 approx Banksy unsigned prints - honestly this sale is a disservice) plus weak prices on Ebay - where I'm seeing prominent art dealers / galleries who will remain nameless unloading Banksy pieces - at prices that I'm shocked by given what they were asking 4 months ago - and sooo many not selling for asking price.

All told... this looks like a really bad picture for Banksy prices - a ton of pieces being auctioned in a very bad economic climate at ridiculous prices, all lined up to sequentially sell in succession from least likely to reach reserve (250GBP Queen Vic on the 17th) to most likely to sell (Bonham's Urban Art Sale).

Combine this dump of art (approximately 50 or so Banksy pieces up for auction in the span of one month) with the economy tanking, and I think confidence in Banksy as an investment could bottom out... Which I must applaud as it will likely mean actual fans can buy Banksy again thus clearing out the speculative buyers.