Banksy Black Spray Can, Gross Domestic Product™, by vyrsace on Jun 15, 2020 20:55:34 GMT 1, So, I think everyone here brings up a good point. It's true with ANYTHING in the art world, even beyond the scope of Banksy, that its hard to establish a going price on that of which you do not know. While I am no expert by any stretch of the imagination, I believe there are really only two ways to systematically justify a market price for an art item.

1.) You sell it to a widely known, advertised, and participated auction (or multiple less known auctions) and have it sell with a reasonably deducted Starting Bid with all information laid out to each prospective bidder so they are as educated as possible to do so. An auction of this nature provides a highly competitive environment and creates a healthy amount of pressure and stakes to make a decision instead of constant deliberation and re-deliberation as most art deal discussions tend to resort back to.

2.) Invest the time and take a big survey from "qualified" participants with a large/significant sample size over a confined predetermined amount of time. By "qualified" I mean people who are deemed sincere and genuine in their intentions to purchase that item.

Unless one of these two circumstances have occurred then no one can confidently arrive to any definitive conclusion on an accurate market price.

So niceguyg touches specifically on 3 good points (he states 4 but #3 and #4 are essentially the same):

1) No Certificate of Authenticity (CoA)
2) No edition size
3) Easy to fake after a few years in circulation


My response to that in the context of Banksy Black is this:

1.) As a current owner of a Banksy Black, I will say that it first states that you will get a CoA after 2 years after the date of purchase. This date will vary for each purchaser due to each person completing their purchases at different times. I believe there was a 1 week period in which you were offered and had to complete it or it would expire, after which it would be thrown into a pool of items that were offered to applicants who were "next in line". This next offer is considered the 'Second Phase' of offers. These offers were given by a stand email template and the purchasing process was similar: fill out your credit card details and receive a purchase confirmation email afterward. So, depending on the date, they will get a CoA. Now I've been personally assured by multiple sources that they will just automatically send you a CoA via email or postal mail. However, I happen to have specific email correspondence that I asked them (GDP Sales) if I could receive one if I moved addresses and they said yes no problem and that I could either contact them (Sales GDP) OR Pest Control. So I believe the CoA is imminent although I recognize that this circumstance can change immediately thereafter. What's to hold back GDP, Pest Control or Banksy from saying "nah, We don't do CoAs any more"? Nothing. Is there any recourse? Nope. So nothing is ever truly guaranteed until the moment occurs and passes. Life lesson there for you.

2.) I recognize how important this detail can be. It's true and completely accurate that the Banksy Black comes with no serial or edition number that is specific to the line of Banksy Blacks. It does come with an, what you may call, "edition" number stating your "order" number. Everyone who successfully completed an order with GDP was given an order number that was in the low 1000 mark. However, this includes people who have also ordered any other item from GDP such as the clock, Banksquait, the matt, etc. etc. So it doesn't reveal exactly how many Banksy Blacks there were and which one this is. All you can do is compare your order number with others that you find that have posted publically. The lower the number, the more closer you are to being the first. I'm sure over time people will create a public list of established order numbers and what items were associated with that. Currently, I have seen 5 other Banksy Blacks than my own. I have spoken to most of those owners personally and we have compared pictures, information and such and they all attest they will NEVER sell and yes, they have received multiple big offers. Personally, I believe he made 20. He could have made 50? Now the question is, How many could he have made MAX in this first run? Well, I'll tell you this. The cost of the can plus the shipping was less than ONE THIRD the cost it cost them to send to me. So let's flip that around. It cost them 3.5x to courier it to me than what I paid. I confirmed this by calling the courier and providing them my tracking number and then asking them the cost. And that's with just their cost on shipping ALONE. That's not including the logistics company (Flight Logistics) they paid to handle the shipments and packaging which were absolutely world-class (they personally communicate to you, the packaging was extremely deliberate and carefully put together and was insanely secure). That's not including the production value costs such as actually making it, the costs of the GDP staff and website, and that's also not including his time. So I would assume the costs of a Banksy Black are close to 100x the original cost of the item (not including the shipping as that can vary from destination to destination). How does that make sense? Why would someone sell any item for ANY business of any industry at an extremely significant loss? Sure, Banksy probably has quite a bit of money to fund this and other projects but do you think anyone with the mind and intelligence of Banksy would continue to produce items en masse at a loss until he depletes his own wealth? It literally makes no sense. I bet you he paid a million dollars or more out of his own pocket in order to fund this first run. So you think he's going to produce more items so he can lose more millions until the end of day? I would argue not.

Also, another point is that prospective buyers hinge on the idea that he will release more and/or new items through GDP as stated/implied on their website. Okay guys, if you are a true and genuine Banksy fan, you have been following his state of affairs for some while and know clearly the intent and purpose of GDP. The purpose of GDP was to defend his trademark in the EU which was attempted at being stolen by a greeting card company. The greeting card company argued that he doesn't deserve his trademark because he does not use it which is a stipulation required by EU law in order to keep your trademark. If Banksy wanted to open a store and sell his items for profit (going "mainstream") then he would have done so in the last 20-30 years, nothing was stopping him. The disclaimer on the front of the GDP site is most likely to show 'face' and intent in regards to the law but he probably has no real plans to actually bring this store to scale. Do you really think he's hired a global marketing and sales team? Do you think he's trying to establish a materials procurement deal or a global supply chain management infrastructure? He would certainly have to if he wanted to at least break even or eventually turn a profit, which I am telling you I have proof that he is not. Again, it just doesn't make sense from a business standpoint and it doesn't make sense from his own personal identity standpoint either.

Let's play devil's advocate and say he did reopen the store, which may happen due to continuous drawn-out court deliberations (common in the EU). There is no guarantee that he will re-release the items that were sold/produced on the first run. They might be completely different items. He would not be contractually bound to any obligations to fulfill that expectation. I also feel that each item and their description was extremely well thought of and deliberate even to the point of the quantity. For those that know Banksy, he is very critical and cynical about the reception of art as a commodity. So, to me, it makes sense that there is an irony and some humor in that the items that were listed as low/limited quantity were actually the opposite, as well as the unlimited ones actually being limited. Nothing obliges him to commit to any predetermined arbitrary quantity/stock.

In summary, I believe there are at max 20 with the current rate of public postings but could be as high as 50. I don't seriously believe using the logic listed above that there are 1000s of these as it would not be realistic or feasible with any means.

3.) Well I agree with that. In fact, it's one of the reasons why I chose the Banksy Black versus the shirt or the mug or the clock. ANYONE can make a mug. ANYONE can make a shirt. I think the Banksy Black is a little more charismatic but albeit it is a simple item. I am no artist either but I can't imagine a professional would have a hard time producing this at a high quality given enough points of reference.

Now with that said, I have been approached by many prospective buyers and the theme of the conversation is the same in that they want not only the product itself but are interested in the original packaging AND the email correspondence AND are interested in the CoA (which I'll remind you, is due 2 years after the date and they are aware of that). So in order to sell at a proper price, you would have to produce all of those factors. Can those be imitated as well? The packaging, yes. The email correspondence, yes. The CoA, I'm not sure but I assume no because aside from the physical piece, it can also be verified by Pest Control. However, the courier information can also be independently verified from the Sender (Flight Logistics to Original Purchaser). Payment records could be validated and confirmed as they were done online and via credit card.

So, there's ways to mitigate this but I think this also it depends on the buyer. If the buyer is impulsive and hasn't paid due diligence then its not just a Banksy Black they should be worried about, its about all art sales as they can all be faked at some point and sold at high risk. If you do a quick search on the Dead Sea Scrolls, you'll find that the "Museum of the Bible" in Washington D.C., recently discovered some of their dead sea scrolls were fakes! So there is associated risk in every piece of work and not just the Banksy Black. If you are worried the value of it will diminish because a bunch of people own counterfeits and are flaunting them around, well that's your prerogative but if that was a common sentiment then no retail brand in the world would retain their value for long like Louis Vuitton for a simple example.

In summary, the concern of fakes depends on the buyer's due diligence and not the integrity of the product itself.


Anyways, I'm done ranting for now. I've been doing a lot of this lately with all this hype about the Banksy Black and people reaching out to me. Cheers!