met - last minute question about the questions....will the questions appear as a new post, as in bottom of P3 atm or as an edit of the video post?

1. deductive
2. change of position = appropriate response
3. The more times we see a picture of a person, the more likeable they seem

well done ed, beat me to the punch there!

COMPETITION 2 – Thursday, 2 March to Saturday, 4 March 2017

Three questions related to the videos below will be posted on Saturday, 4 March at 21:00 GMT (or within a few minutes thereof).

The first person to correctly or sufficiently answer all three questions (in accordance with the Game Format and Rules) will be allocated the following three lottery numbers: 3, 4 and 5



Cognitive Biases: What They Are, Why They're Important [13:18]
– uploaded by Kevin deLaplante



Cognitive Biases and the Authority of Science [27:45]
– uploaded by Kevin deLaplante

1.deductive
2. to accept that there is no definate answer
3. the more you flick thrugh the yearbook the more the faces become familiar and as a result seem more friendlier.

I'm a bit slow here haha well done to Ed.

.... I haven't finished reading the FAQ's yet!

This thread is the most complicated thread that I have never read!
Even in French, it seems as mathematics and nuclear physics ...

I like lotteries, for many reasons.

Same here with the revision, I think the problem was that I was using my cognitive bias to develop a pattern, thus my conclusion that there was a test yesterday, so there must be a test today.

C2 QUESTIONS

Keeping in mind point 4 of the Game Format and Rules, please answer the following:


1. First video: The narrator states there's speculation our brains have evolved various shortcut mechanisms for making judgements and decisions — especially when the problems we're facing are complex, we have incomplete information, and there's risk involved. These mental shortcuts or rules of thumb are designed to give us solutions that are "good enough" for our immediate purposes. [However, in contexts removed from the ancestral environments where these cognitive mechanisms evolved, they can lead us to make systematically bad choices or errors in reasoning.]

What alternative (more technical) term is used in the video to refer to these mental shortcuts or rules of thumb?


2. First video (two-part question): The idea behind one rule of thumb is that, when people are asked to estimate a probability or an uncertain number, rather than try to perform a complex calculation in their heads, they start with an implicitly suggested reference point. They then make adjustments from that reference point to reach their estimate.

(i) The above process often results in people making poor estimates. Name this cognitive bias.

(ii) Curveball question / application of theory to practice: In one to three sentences, give a clear example describing how this cognitive bias could be exploited by a forum member (whether an original poster or subsequent commenter) to their own advantage — in a 'Price Check' thread or, alternatively, in a 'For Sale' thread.


3. Second video: The video refers to two simple ideas: (i) Human beings are prone to biases that lead to error; and (ii) Scientific methodology aims to neutralise the effects of these biases, and thereby reduce error.

One bias discussed is our natural disposition to seek out patterns in sensory data and attribute meaning to those patterns — an ability which is usually a valuable tool (e.g. for extracting relevant information from our physical and social environments). However, a price we pay is that we sometimes mistakenly see meaningful patterns in random or meaningless data. What is the name given to that general phenomenon / human tendency?



[Competition 2 winner to be confirmed as from 21:30 GMT (but no later than 23:59 GMT).]

1. Heuristics
2. i) anchoring effect ii) A member could own a print that they are asking a price check for. They could have use an alternative account or have a friend post a very high valuation. When other members see this they are anchored to the higher price.
3. Apophenia

On this occasion, the lottery numbers will be divided between two competitors.

There's an issue with question 3, given the unintentional ambiguity created. I had been looking for the general, widely recognised term, "apophenia" (put forward by tyler as 2nd responder). However, the term coined by and very much associated with Michael Shermer, "patternicity" (put forward by ed as 1st responder) is also technically correct.

Lottery numbers 3 and 4 allocated to ed . Lottery number 5 allocated to tyler . Congratulations.

[Excellent effort by doyle as well.]


C2 REFERENCE ANSWERS

1. Heuristics.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic


2.

(i) Anchoring / the anchoring effect. ["Anchoring heuristic" also accepted.]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

(ii) Two examples of exploiting the anchoring effect on forum threads:

Example 1:

In a 'Price Check' thread for a print, the first forum member to post a price estimate will set an anchor in the minds of both (a) the person who made the price-check request, and (b) other members, including those who may later offer their own comments on price.

Depending on the result they wish to achieve, that first forum member might opt for a figure that is above market value (e.g. if they own the same print and wish to establish a high anchor) or below market value (e.g. if they're looking to buy the print and wish to establish a low anchor).

Example 2:

In a 'For Sale' thread, when soliciting offers, the seller can refer to a previous sale result that was exceptionally high for the artist, as might be the case for another print which sold at a charity auction. This will create an anchor or reference point that may have a conscious or subconscious effect on the level of offers that seller receives from potential buyers.


In both of the above examples, the use of anchoring — as a psychological tactic to influence or manipulate others — may be especially effective in relation to artists whose markets are volatile, or not closely followed by the majority of forum members.


3. Apophenia. ["Patternicity" accepted after further consideration.]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia


_____________________________


A list of cognitive biases can be found here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases


If anyone is interested in watching shorter, more accessible videos on the subjects of anchoring or confirmation bias, see the ones below:


CRITICAL THINKING - Cognitive Biases: Anchoring [4:53]
– uploaded by Wireless Philosophy



Confirmation Bias [3:54]
– uploaded by Bo Bennett




Another subject of interest to me is the peak-end effect. I recommend this video, which has had some influence on a recent project-related decision I've made:


CRITICAL THINKING - Cognitive Biases: Peak-End Effect [HD] [5:15]
– uploaded by Wireless Philosophy

PREPARATION AND TACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS

Clever players who worked out how to shave precious seconds off their response times will have had the slight advantage they fully deserved during Competitions 1 and 2. That's a pretty good run, but long enough I believe.

Let's now level the field slightly by sharing a couple of tips for the slower competitors with inefficient battle plans. To those in this category — going forward, consider the following:


1. Before a set of three questions is scheduled to be posted, try opening a second window and place it side-by-side with the first, so that both are visible on your computer screen.

The first window should be ready for refreshing, to see the questions as soon as they're posted at the scheduled time — and to access the videos for quick reference if necessary (unless separate tabs have already been opened for those videos).

In the second window, have a 'Create Reply' box to this thread opened, with the numbers "1.", "2." and "3." pre-typed.


2. Has any pattern developed yet with the questions — the kind of questions asked, their format, or the areas that tend to be homed in on?

Is it worth taking brief notes when watching the videos, jotting down key terms or expressions?

Though I'll try to avoid being overly predictable, when considering the likely objectives of the game, is it possible to anticipate any of the questions beforehand?



Good luck to all.

And let the marathon continue.

_____________________________


COMPETITION 3 – Saturday, 4 March to Monday, 6 March 2017

Three questions related to the videos below will be posted on Monday, 6 March at 21:00 GMT (or within a few minutes thereof).

The first person to correctly or sufficiently answer all three questions (in accordance with the Game Format and Rules) will be allocated the following two lottery numbers: 6 and 7



2.6 Loss Aversion and The Endowment Effect [12:17]
– uploaded by Long Luong



CRITICAL THINKING - Fallacies: Ad Hominem [HD] [8:10]
– uploaded by Wireless Philosophy



CRITICAL THINKING - Fallacies: Straw Man Fallacy [HD] [5:58]
– uploaded by Wireless Philosophy