If you go and open the links above, say the AER research paper posted before, you see that it is clear cut.

That piece is heavy. It's the economics correspondent to the kind of medical publication your doctor would refer to when treating you. It is the standard reference journal for economists and it is sharp. More broadly, if you look at the scientific consensus on the labor market effects, it is clear.

Suppose it's a bit much to expect members of an art forum to care about the wages of those in low skilled jobs. As long as a single study fits their agenda we'll just keep saying that's the truth end of story.

Please when discussing economics with anyone don't ever assume anything is 100% clear cut

Your argument is affected by a so called partial equilibrium fallacy ie you are assuming that when the supply of immigrant labour increases, the rest of the economy stays the same — and that’s just plain wrong.

First, the immigrants not only supply labour, they also generate demand for goods and services . Especially since they end up consuming a very large share of their income (optimal saving rates tend to be roughly inversely proportional to wealth, and proportional to age before midlife, hence immigrants consume quite a bit since they tend to be younger and poorer). This effect in turn generates more work and wealth in the host country, pushing up wages too.

Second immigrants are typically younger than the average population, yet mostly not infant and post schooling. This implies that immigrant groups tend to pay in taxes much more than they receive in welfare benefits (since these are mostly absorbed by public health, pensions, and schooling costs). Hence immigrants help even public finances. Once again, reducing the needs for contractionary fiscal policies and therefore stimulating economic activity and everybody’s wages.
Even on the “law and order” front, immigrants seem to be a good deal, since as a whole they tend to commit less crimes than residents.

As Fast Eddie points out, these effects are not too hard to measure. And when researchers go and measure them (and have done so zillion times), the overwhelming scientific consensus is that immigration (at least of the type that we have experienced in the last few centuries of data) has a positive effect on the economy, on wages, and on public finances.

Indeed a fact, not an opinion.

😂 might work

Most of us do not confuse stagnant median real wages for workers (completely true issue in most OECD countries since the 1990s) with the downward pressure on wages due to economic migrants specifically.

These two phenomena are largely unrelated and the first one is a much larger, broader and more worrisome issue, depending on technological change, globalization, and policy choices.

This general idea of "never had a real job" (as if going to college was a waste of time where idiots teach you) is also pretty lazy thinking in my opinion. But feel free to suggest to your kids to skip university and see what happens to their job market prospects.

"Largely unrelated" lol. Just because you say so to fit your argument? Sure. And I clearly keep stating the impact is worse for low skilled workers, because it's true.



The real learning at university doesn't come from the professors. But yes I do have a problem with life long "economists". Especially ones who seem to think a topic this vast can ever be clear cut. In fact it is hugely idiotic.

No, he says that these are largely unrelated phenomena just because he is well read - unlike you clearly.

Ok, I gave references to look at, which include some of the relevant figures. I could provide more for low skilled workers (please do read the ton of research on the Mariel Boatlift, it is fascinating and conclusive).

@araplatoon I am glad for you. But the job markets your kids will face will be different and much harder for the non-college educated (don't take my word for it, look at your government's labor market reports).

Peace.

Haha good one...

Even though I think economists are huge frauds, I only found this out later in life after completing my economics degree.

I do enjoy the ego of economists that nobody else could have possibly read up on subjects. There is a huge debate on the topic of immigrant impact on wages and there is no consensus on the best empirical model to measure it. Anyone who claims there is one is lying or stupid. Or both. But the impact is there and especially on the low skilled.

Dispiriting. But have a weekend of bliss. 👋

There’s a fascinating discussion here, if both sides stuck to the facts and being polite. I note name calling takes precedence when the facts run out.

2 further observations from a bystander, Chris’s assertations about taxation of the rich have not been discredited by anything proceeding as far as I can see? So if those opposing that viewport can address politely the why, that would be great.

I also note blanksy’s original point, was actually answered very well by kernow and sfnyc , if those opposing their insights have a counter viewpoint that addresses what they actually say, that would be wonderful.

The main point you are all missing is automation/AI. Every study i've seen quoted and read on immigration of low skilled workers into a highly educated society bases their statistical data (inherently) on data from the past.

You can not compare pre-internet migration numbers where people actually migrated to work and had some basic skills to offer to a not that industrialized society, to post mass-internet migration numbers where a lot of people simply migrate because they have gotten the impression through the internet in general and social media in particular that 'the west' or 'Europe' offers you free money, housing and jobs, which is a huge improvement from the corrupt shithole you are currently living in.

There aren't actual jobs you can do when you have no skills or education, which is perfectly seen in the % of migrants arriving in the Netherlands that are either working or on welfare within a few years of arrival. 50,9% of all people on welfare in my country are non western immigrants, 9% are western immigrants. Dutch citizens make up the remaining 40%.

statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/publication/?DM=SLNL&PA=82016NED

And it's getting worse. Way worse. There are giant leaps being made in AI and automation, which will render a lot of low skilled jobs obsolete. All these statistical models that base their conclusions on historical data tell me that they can project these same patterns on the future, which you just can't.