imho, this bear rally will top out between 9kand 10.3k on the dow. Historically bear market rallies recover 1/3 to 1/2 of the previous decline (and do so in MUCH faster order than the decline itself which is exactly what we are experiencing). I am mentally (and financially) positoned for a worst case resumption of the bear market and a violation of the previous lows taking the dow to historic bear market bottoms (p/e in the single digits with dividend yields around 7%) which is somewhere between dow 3500-5k. To me, that is when you get out of gold in concentration and begin buying stocks in earnest. Art has already taken a 50-75% haricut on the great stuff so a much different market there.

As Ricahrd Russell wisely recalled yesterday "Come into my web" said the spider to the fly. "I'd rather not, cause I'm afraid I'm going to die." "Come and join me" said the market to the crowd. "I never looked better" said the market out loud.

We all need to be careful here and make sure we're not in debt of any kind as "in a bear market everyone loses and the winner is the one who loses the least."

I won't call you or anyone here a miserable *&#%

But I will celebrate over that graph. That graph means you can buy stock in companies for tons less than what you could 1, 2, 3 years ago. It sucks for the elderly, as my grandparents nest egg has been ransacked but as much as I'm a skeptic and pessimistic I can't help but think this global correction of excess is a good thing and is a great starting point to get back on track. It's a great time for weak companies to go under and people with great ideas to start up on a level playing field.

Standard psychology of people is to buy stock when they're doing really well and sell or not buy them when the market is doing really bad. I won't bore with stock talk but those who continually invest in the market, add to their 401k even in bad times (LIKE RIGHT NOW) make out much much better than people who sit on the sidelines. Personally I tend to think we've seen bottom or else the bottom won't be that much lower than where we just were. [edit: I'm talking about the bottom in the stock market not the bottom of the recession, two very different things] But I still think we're years away from a true bull market. But really no one knows if the stock market has bottomed or not, but in 20 years when I retire it shouldn't really matter if 2009 or 2010 was the exact low point.

But I'm unhappy with Obamas plan to go extraordinarily into debt to 'recover' the economy. Wasn't people getting themselves into debt more than they could possibly repay what got us into this mess? Are we trying to fight fire with fire? If Obama's recovery plan fails miserably, which it may, then we might be in for a bumpy ride.

Just getting started.

My view is that when the recession comes to an end, which may take a fair while yet, we'll be so heavily taxed directly and indirectly that those of us who have kept in work will find that we were better off during the recession. we could be paying off government borrowing for over a decade at least.

I think the few people that do have money are waiting for the bottom of the Housing and Stock market, at that appears to be now.
They can buy up shares and property being pretty confident that its unlikely to go down any more, and they could be in a very good position in say two or three years time.

Recession over? As sad as it is it did make me laugh. It just starting specially for Europe.

Exactly! People see what they want to see and it certainly isn't worth debating, as only time will tell. Not sure exactly what is meant by "recession nearly over" to be honest (not to mention the term recession seems entirely inadequate), as I think most of us would agree that it will be at least several years before most markets are in anything like the shape they were before this mess started. Somehow I'm finding this thread a bit distasteful. The ITK wannabes stroking their own egos and all the "real issues" being swept under the carpet. Personally I couldn't care less how much any of you make or loose in the markets, as if you're involved, presumably you can afford to be and it isn't YOUR well-being/survival that's facing clear and present danger. Why should anyone else care about your wallett, 401K, pension or trading strategies? Of course I wish you all well on a personal level, but people in your business are only interested in one thing and just as happy to make their cash while others around them suffer as at any other time.

All I know for sure is, as Snausages says above, my grandparents will most likely not live to see the end of all this and it's a sad day when elderly peoples' incomes are halved overnight because the banks are incapable of keeping their zippers up and behaving responsibly and professionally! This entire situation was 100% avoidable if common sense had been factored in and tempered greed somewhat, but what do the fat-cats and the brokers care? They still get their bonuses/commissions right? Even if this year some of them are paid with our taxes because so many had no clue or care what they were doing! What do people think about the knock-on social effects of increased unemployment and poverty? What about how this is likely to affect crime-rates in the UK and/or the US in the medium term? I wonder if the number of pensioners who can't heat their apartments next winter and die of hyperthermia will double! It will be some time yet before we're able to truly see and gauge the effects of this whole scenario, and talking about it retrospectively while there's a strong possibility it's only just begun, seems foolhardy and worthy only of the sort of people that created this mess imo. Anyway, what was the phrase about one swallow and a summer?!

Bloody hell HC

Your post has some what soured my Champagne and truffles snack.

Brown and Darling just rile me, cant understand how they still control the UK

Mr Cromwell had it pretty right -

"It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place, which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice; ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government; ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money. Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess? Ye have no more religion than my horse; gold is your God; which of you have not barter'd your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth? Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defil'd this sacred place, and turn'd the Lord's temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress'd, are yourselves gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors. In the name of God, go!"


20 April 1653

Lol, sorry Manty! I was just feeling a tad sour, as my own Kobe beef was slightly overcooked for dinner last night and that commoner waiter had the nerve to argue when I told him my Chateau Lafeet was corked! The insolence!

you pauper!

wagyu beef and chablis grand cru my friend

prune juice !

Indeed, let's not forget who got the whole deregulation ball rolling, makes me laugh to see calls for electing a Tory government to sort out the mess caused by deregulating when it's a core belief of theirs. Stuart Lee made an interesting comment last night on his comedy vehicle about how things started to go wrong when we confused the idea of home with investment, what other animal makes it's nest in an investment.

Here's another cause that seems to have been forgotten. A year or more ago the price of numerous stable foods began to rapidly rise, first wheat then rice and pasta followed by many others, all basic goods like bread and milk. The cause ? or at least the major factor, oil in a roundabout way. Seeing the need to find alternatives to petroleum based fuels governments such as the U.S.A. and ours in the U.K. seized on the idea of bio fuels which at least on paper sound great, keep your cars don't be reliant on oil imports cut emissions, what a winner. Unfortunately they're hugely inefficient to produce for such large scale use as replacing petrol for car use, but they didn't care instead putting cash subsidies into the purchase of crops and construction of plants. This caused sudden shortages of crops in countries which are heavily dependant on them as food, such as rice in India. Other governments responded to this buy up of their important crops by placing export limits, demand has shot up supply's dropped drastically prices soared. As many of these crops are also used to feed the intensively reared meat we over consume it's had an effect of pushing up the price of many other goods. Here in the west this has meant that despite our claimed low inflation we are in fact having to spend more and more on basic goods but in the crop producing countries it's more a case of can you feed your family or not. Given the fact that the inefficient Kyoto protocol is due to finish soon I had hoped that issues such as these may have been a major factor in the recent G20 summit but as usual it's all about getting back to the good old days with huge amounts of cash for regeneration to create financial growth. The only way too get out of this recession long term is to take a holistic approach and realise how all our actions affect everything, we may well buy our way out of trouble for a few years but until the collective governments of the world start to realise that consumer capitalism is incompatible with long term survival we're just sticking a band aid on serious haemorrage.

howler,
good post!

great post Howler, Howler for Prime Minister ;D