howler
New Member
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October 2008
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Recession Nearly Over?, by howler on Apr 7, 2009 17:31:12 GMT 1, great post Howler, Howler for Prime Minister ;D
Ha ha, that manifesto would make an interesting read.
Auchtungbono, I know the example I used was just to show another aspect of why we're where we are today. Chinas move towards an expectation of a western standard of living could have more impact on the world as we know it than anything we've ever seen. Just the production of enough fridges and cars to bring their per capita ownership in line with ours would have a massive impact on resources possibly pushing existing problems too tipping point. Here's another strange way we could save money resources and help with the current financial crisis. We're spending huge amounts on a war in Afghanistan with one aim being to reduce the trade in opium poppies so we spend time money and effort searching for and destroying poppy fields whilst at the same time there's a world shortage of medical grade morphine which (and I may be wrong here) I believe is carried by army fied medics for pain relief for times such as when you get shot by a pissed off poppy grower. Apply a bit of joined up thinking and maybe some progress would be made in Afghanistan, money saved and scarce resources used more efficiently.
There was series on the BBC recently presented by Andrew Marr I think it was called "Darwins Dangerous Idea". It was on at a bad time for me to concentrate fully due to tired kids nagging but what I did see was fascinating and touched on many issues like this. I'll try and remember too search out some links and post them here.
great post Howler, Howler for Prime Minister ;D Ha ha, that manifesto would make an interesting read. Auchtungbono, I know the example I used was just to show another aspect of why we're where we are today. Chinas move towards an expectation of a western standard of living could have more impact on the world as we know it than anything we've ever seen. Just the production of enough fridges and cars to bring their per capita ownership in line with ours would have a massive impact on resources possibly pushing existing problems too tipping point. Here's another strange way we could save money resources and help with the current financial crisis. We're spending huge amounts on a war in Afghanistan with one aim being to reduce the trade in opium poppies so we spend time money and effort searching for and destroying poppy fields whilst at the same time there's a world shortage of medical grade morphine which (and I may be wrong here) I believe is carried by army fied medics for pain relief for times such as when you get shot by a pis sed off poppy grower. Apply a bit of joined up thinking and maybe some progress would be made in Afghanistan, money saved and scarce resources used more efficiently. There was series on the BBC recently presented by Andrew Marr I think it was called "Darwins Dangerous Idea". It was on at a bad time for me to concentrate fully due to tired kids nagging but what I did see was fascinating and touched on many issues like this. I'll try and remember too search out some links and post them here. |
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lee3
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 832
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November 2009
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Recession Nearly Over?, by lee3 on Apr 7, 2009 18:05:55 GMT 1, >>>I pray that we return to the lows we recently saw so I can buy more but am rather skeptical it will happen<<<<
Be careful what you wish for. I believe this bear market rally has run its course and not only do I suspect we will return to the lows in short order but also violate them drastically and make new lows. Yes, it's a good time to buy (just as it was in 1930 compared with '29). However, the most damage was done to the markets and the public at large following the '30 bear market correction which finally bottomed in '32 (there were a few more corrections along the way) wiping out a staggering 90% of the market peak to trough. Yes, assets of all kinds look cheap relative to the past 5 or 10 years but we all should be cautioned and very careful as they may look very expensive comparably 5 years from now.
We need to ask ourselves "what if we are wrong" when buying anything of substantial value. What if this global bear market still has 3 or 4 years until it bottoms (which i believe is quite possible)? If so, just about everything any of us is considering buying today will be substanitally cheaper by then. I'm as guilty as anyone for continuing to buy art habitually but they are purchases that I can afford to withstand a write down to zero. I caution anyone who is considering real estate today as more often than not one has to lever themselves up to acquire that asset class and if things continue to move south can easily wipe out one's entire net worth "if they are wrong."
>>>I pray that we return to the lows we recently saw so I can buy more but am rather skeptical it will happen<<<<
Be careful what you wish for. I believe this bear market rally has run its course and not only do I suspect we will return to the lows in short order but also violate them drastically and make new lows. Yes, it's a good time to buy (just as it was in 1930 compared with '29). However, the most damage was done to the markets and the public at large following the '30 bear market correction which finally bottomed in '32 (there were a few more corrections along the way) wiping out a staggering 90% of the market peak to trough. Yes, assets of all kinds look cheap relative to the past 5 or 10 years but we all should be cautioned and very careful as they may look very expensive comparably 5 years from now.
We need to ask ourselves "what if we are wrong" when buying anything of substantial value. What if this global bear market still has 3 or 4 years until it bottoms (which i believe is quite possible)? If so, just about everything any of us is considering buying today will be substanitally cheaper by then. I'm as guilty as anyone for continuing to buy art habitually but they are purchases that I can afford to withstand a write down to zero. I caution anyone who is considering real estate today as more often than not one has to lever themselves up to acquire that asset class and if things continue to move south can easily wipe out one's entire net worth "if they are wrong."
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Recession Nearly Over?, by snausages on Apr 7, 2009 18:36:01 GMT 1, I still stand by my sentiment fully although I understand your caution.
But people were touting stocks insanely while their price basis was higher than ever. Now that things have soured people are running for the hills. It's classic human emotion and psychologyโand rarely pays off. The time to warn people about investing in stocks or real estate was in 2007โwhich I did.
But historically speaking those that continue to add to their portfolio in the most dire of times very much outperformed those that pull their money out in fear and those that only invest after things have turned around. We've now already seen two major bottoms/rallies since the collapse and we've come down more than 50% from the highs-historically a strong point of support. It certainly can go lower (61.8% would be the next stop) but I'm not going to sit on the sideline pretending to be a guru sure that the market will reach XXXX before I invest ...and be left completely behind. I strongly advocate dollar cost averaging though and think in general this year will be a great time to be adding money into your 401k on a regular basis. And if the DOW does hit 5300 (the next fibonacci level) I will definitely still be adding.
I still stand by my sentiment fully although I understand your caution.
But people were touting stocks insanely while their price basis was higher than ever. Now that things have soured people are running for the hills. It's classic human emotion and psychologyโand rarely pays off. The time to warn people about investing in stocks or real estate was in 2007โwhich I did.
But historically speaking those that continue to add to their portfolio in the most dire of times very much outperformed those that pull their money out in fear and those that only invest after things have turned around. We've now already seen two major bottoms/rallies since the collapse and we've come down more than 50% from the highs-historically a strong point of support. It certainly can go lower (61.8% would be the next stop) but I'm not going to sit on the sideline pretending to be a guru sure that the market will reach XXXX before I invest ...and be left completely behind. I strongly advocate dollar cost averaging though and think in general this year will be a great time to be adding money into your 401k on a regular basis. And if the DOW does hit 5300 (the next fibonacci level) I will definitely still be adding.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by veralynn on Apr 7, 2009 21:10:16 GMT 1, Can't speak of technical support for the dow or how algorhythmic trading may support the market when, if jobbers were still running around the floor, this support wouldn't/would be there.
I think that there is still sufficient surplus equity in the main residenses and other property investments too support, to an extent, a loss making company in the SME bracket. That specific company might've trimmed their fixed costs and so on.
Remains to be seen if they can withstand August, a typically slow month and the few months following this will be very telling from a cashflow perspective. In my opinion this is when the pain will start to tell and the markets aren't pricing this in. They are still reacting rather than anticipating...............
Can't speak of technical support for the dow or how algorhythmic trading may support the market when, if jobbers were still running around the floor, this support wouldn't/would be there.
I think that there is still sufficient surplus equity in the main residenses and other property investments too support, to an extent, a loss making company in the SME bracket. That specific company might've trimmed their fixed costs and so on.
Remains to be seen if they can withstand August, a typically slow month and the few months following this will be very telling from a cashflow perspective. In my opinion this is when the pain will start to tell and the markets aren't pricing this in. They are still reacting rather than anticipating...............
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on Apr 8, 2009 18:27:19 GMT 1,
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Recession Nearly Over?, by snausages on May 5, 2009 23:30:32 GMT 1, Recession Nearly Over?
"U.S. stocks surged Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite entered positive territory for 2009 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed for its best four-week winning streak since 1933."
Interesting. A month ago, the consensus here was no, and that the market rally was about to collapse on itself. A month later we've seen the best Dow streak in 70 years.
Still got a long way to go till the end of the year but this exposes the problem and danger of human emotion and being too frightened to buy stocks (or Banksys) or do start up your own business or whatever, when it's a pretty clear value. Being scared out of the market is just as dangerous as blindly dumping money in to it. This also exposes the lag between public perception and what's going on behind the scenes. Hundreds of stocks have tripled or quadrupled since February. I'm no soothsayer, I won't be too shocked if we make lower lows in 2010 but really, I feel like I won't ever have another chance of buying GE etc. at about 5. But maybe I'll get lucky, or unlucky, depending on your perspective.
The recession may or may not be over. But just like it began, sneakily, many months before anyone realized or acknowledged it ...it will end, sneakily, and only many months later will the masses have realized it.
Recession Nearly Over?
"U.S. stocks surged Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite entered positive territory for 2009 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed for its best four-week winning streak since 1933."
Interesting. A month ago, the consensus here was no, and that the market rally was about to collapse on itself. A month later we've seen the best Dow streak in 70 years.
Still got a long way to go till the end of the year but this exposes the problem and danger of human emotion and being too frightened to buy stocks (or Banksys) or do start up your own business or whatever, when it's a pretty clear value. Being scared out of the market is just as dangerous as blindly dumping money in to it. This also exposes the lag between public perception and what's going on behind the scenes. Hundreds of stocks have tripled or quadrupled since February. I'm no soothsayer, I won't be too shocked if we make lower lows in 2010 but really, I feel like I won't ever have another chance of buying GE etc. at about 5. But maybe I'll get lucky, or unlucky, depending on your perspective.
The recession may or may not be over. But just like it began, sneakily, many months before anyone realized or acknowledged it ...it will end, sneakily, and only many months later will the masses have realized it.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 5, 2009 23:38:58 GMT 1, I rest my case 
I rest my case |
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karengolden
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 198
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September 2008
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Recession Nearly Over?, by karengolden on May 5, 2009 23:45:44 GMT 1, yep, Silky does have a point.
yep, Silky does have a point.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Gentle Mental on May 6, 2009 4:17:17 GMT 1, Is it over, really?
the nagging feeling that what was, just a month or two ago, claimed to be THE WORSE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION can be over in 8 quick months.
boy, this Obama guy is good.
Is it over, really?
the nagging feeling that what was, just a month or two ago, claimed to be THE WORSE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION can be over in 8 quick months.
boy, this Obama guy is good.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by snausages on May 6, 2009 6:28:45 GMT 1, As if Obama has any control over this beast. Easier keeping a lion on a leash.
As if Obama has any control over this beast. Easier keeping a lion on a leash.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Gentle Mental on May 6, 2009 8:34:13 GMT 1, I must be really missing something.
I cannot find one concrete piece of positive news that is supporting this record-breaking recovery rally.
Could someone please explain?
I must be really missing something.
I cannot find one concrete piece of positive news that is supporting this record-breaking recovery rally.
Could someone please explain?
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Cocteau 101
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 3,508
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January 2007
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Cocteau 101 on May 6, 2009 8:54:17 GMT 1, The US LIBOR dropped to below 1%.
The worst may possibly be over but the ripples will still be felt but the recovery has to start from a floor and this may well be that floor witha few up and down movements along the way but a slower moving upward trend.
The US LIBOR dropped to below 1%.
The worst may possibly be over but the ripples will still be felt but the recovery has to start from a floor and this may well be that floor witha few up and down movements along the way but a slower moving upward trend.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 15:33:06 GMT 1, There are still many many more people unemployed now who were working this time last year. i bet they dont feel like the worst has passed
This country was full of companies that were barley surviving  its sad to say, but the more of those that close down the better for the rest in the long run.
Unless they are bailed out  we should only be left with well run and forward thinking companies ;D and with all the dead wood cut out of the market, they will grow and start employing the people who lost their jobs with the other companies.
Its gonna take time to all get settled down 
There are still many many more people unemployed now who were working this time last year. i bet they dont feel like the worst has passed This country was full of companies that were barley surviving its sad to say, but the more of those that close down the better for the rest in the long run. Unless they are bailed out we should only be left with well run and forward thinking companies ;D and with all the dead wood cut out of the market, they will grow and start employing the people who lost their jobs with the other companies. Its gonna take time to all get settled down |
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Deleted
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January 1970
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Deleted on May 6, 2009 15:38:39 GMT 1, have you ever been made unemployed? It seems rather cold and dismissive to take the view of 'cutting the deadwood adrift' - a fair few hard working people through no fault of their own are now in a lot of hardship, because of people far higher up the scale ensuring their bank accounts are nicely filled. If not for their greed and short sightedness those companies would still be in rude health.
have you ever been made unemployed? It seems rather cold and dismissive to take the view of 'cutting the deadwood adrift' - a fair few hard working people through no fault of their own are now in a lot of hardship, because of people far higher up the scale ensuring their bank accounts are nicely filled. If not for their greed and short sightedness those companies would still be in rude health.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 16:12:13 GMT 1, have you ever been made unemployed? It seems rather cold and dismissive to take the view of 'cutting the deadwood adrift' - a fair few hard working people through no fault of their own are now in a lot of hardship, because of people far higher up the scale ensuring their bank accounts are nicely filled. If not for their greed and short sightedness those companies would still be in rude health.
Of course most of the people being made unemployed are not at fault in anyway, and as you say its normally the people at the top who are at fault.
So whats the solution? should the government not allow these companies to close? should they bail them out every year, even when its clear they cant survive?
have you ever been made unemployed? It seems rather cold and dismissive to take the view of 'cutting the deadwood adrift' - a fair few hard working people through no fault of their own are now in a lot of hardship, because of people far higher up the scale ensuring their bank accounts are nicely filled. If not for their greed and short sightedness those companies would still be in rude health. Of course most of the people being made unemployed are not at fault in anyway, and as you say its normally the people at the top who are at fault. So whats the solution? should the government not allow these companies to close? should they bail them out every year, even when its clear they cant survive? |
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Recession Nearly Over?, by woodsman on May 6, 2009 16:16:37 GMT 1, Christ what a load of Horse Shit Silky!
Christ what a load of Horse Shit Silky!
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 16:16:46 GMT 1, im interested, do you have a job silky?
This has become my job, if thats the right name for it I suspect I might even be earning less than if I was unemployed ยฃ391.54 last month! that was my TOTAL income.
im interested, do you have a job silky? This has become my job, if thats the right name for it I suspect I might even be earning less than if I was unemployed ยฃ391.54 last month! that was my TOTAL income. |
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 16:19:32 GMT 1, Christ what a load of Horse s**t Silky!
What is?
Tell us all the solution?
What would you do?
Christ what a load of Horse s**t Silky! What is? Tell us all the solution? What would you do? |
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Deleted
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January 1970
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Deleted on May 6, 2009 16:21:24 GMT 1, obviously badly run companies will in time always decline and cease that's the nature of a free market economy, recessionary periods lead to more stress on the business than normal periods, in these periods I'd say it's important to support business - rather than allow unemployment figures to rise, tax takings to fall and the already under financed public service to take up even more of the strain.
My one concern in all of this is the common man, at the end of the day the person taking home the average wage to his family needs all the support he can get in these periods - life is tough enough already
obviously badly run companies will in time always decline and cease that's the nature of a free market economy, recessionary periods lead to more stress on the business than normal periods, in these periods I'd say it's important to support business - rather than allow unemployment figures to rise, tax takings to fall and the already under financed public service to take up even more of the strain.
My one concern in all of this is the common man, at the end of the day the person taking home the average wage to his family needs all the support he can get in these periods - life is tough enough already
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chrisps303
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 1,006
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December 2006
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Recession Nearly Over?, by chrisps303 on May 6, 2009 16:23:02 GMT 1, im interested, do you have a job silky? This has become my job, if thats the right name for it I suspect I might even be earning less than if I was unemployed ยฃ391.54 last month! that was my TOTAL income.
It think ยฃ391 is more than you get for being on the dole.
im interested, do you have a job silky? This has become my job, if thats the right name for it I suspect I might even be earning less than if I was unemployed ยฃ391.54 last month! that was my TOTAL income. It think ยฃ391 is more than you get for being on the dole. |
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 16:33:53 GMT 1, Christ what a load of Horse s**t Silky! What is? Tell us all the solution? What would you do?
Woodsman,
Whats your solution? should the government bail out ALL companies for years to come and never allow anyone to become unemployed?
Christ what a load of Horse s**t Silky! What is? Tell us all the solution? What would you do? Woodsman, Whats your solution? should the government bail out ALL companies for years to come and never allow anyone to become unemployed? |
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tommyboy
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 155
๐๐ป 5
October 2007
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Recession Nearly Over?, by tommyboy on May 6, 2009 16:37:11 GMT 1,
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8035363.stm
More house price falls 'likely'
This recession is along way from being over
1.7% in one month
we are now 22.5% down from peak house prices
The main stream media was only stating 8% to 10% falls this year a few days ago.
i think it is time to revise your forecasts.
That 1.7% represents nearly 1/3 of the forcast for the whole year, in just one month!
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8035363.stmMore house price falls 'likely' This recession is along way from being over 1.7% in one month we are now 22.5% down from peak house prices The main stream media was only stating 8% to 10% falls this year a few days ago. i think it is time to revise your forecasts. That 1.7% represents nearly 1/3 of the forcast for the whole year, in just one month!
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 16:46:01 GMT 1, Talking of house prices, I think it would be good for them to fall a bit more, and stay at a stable level for a few years. The gap between wages and house prices has been way too big
Talking of house prices, I think it would be good for them to fall a bit more, and stay at a stable level for a few years. The gap between wages and house prices has been way too big |
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 16:52:23 GMT 1, silky how can more companies failing help the economy? A failing company has an affect on more than just those people who work for it you know.
Thats exactly what Im sayin
1. Is it better to have 100 failing companies that need the government to bail then out to keep them running.
or
2. 50 well run, profit making companies that can grow and employ the same number of people, and pay them a better wage.
silky how can more companies failing help the economy? A failing company has an affect on more than just those people who work for it you know. Thats exactly what Im sayin 1. Is it better to have 100 failing companies that need the government to bail then out to keep them running. or 2. 50 well run, profit making companies that can grow and employ the same number of people, and pay them a better wage. |
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Recession Nearly Over?, by thegreatarchitect on May 6, 2009 17:03:46 GMT 1, Recession or not this present government has to go. This recession has been solely caused by a government that drips with greed and invested heavily in an pyramid scheme because of its greed
Recession or not this present government has to go. This recession has been solely caused by a government that drips with greed and invested heavily in an pyramid scheme because of its greed
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Deleted
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January 1970
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Deleted on May 6, 2009 17:05:11 GMT 1, and GA the conservatives are well known for their common touch...
and GA the conservatives are well known for their common touch...
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 17:11:46 GMT 1, Recession or not this present government has to go. This recession has been solely caused by a government that drips with greed and invested heavily in an pyramid scheme because of its greed
Yep, its all been about making people think things are going well, and buying voters. They have been lucky to keep the game going this long  but now we are all gonna pay for it for decades to come.
The funny thing is that most labour supporters are still convinced they have done a great job ;D
Recession or not this present government has to go. This recession has been solely caused by a government that drips with greed and invested heavily in an pyramid scheme because of its greed Yep, its all been about making people think things are going well, and buying voters. They have been lucky to keep the game going this long but now we are all gonna pay for it for decades to come. The funny thing is that most labour supporters are still convinced they have done a great job ;D |
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Gentle Mental on May 6, 2009 17:16:42 GMT 1, i call this "recovery" bluff. possibly the biggest bear rally in the history of mankind.
the bad news, based on facts, keep mounting everyday, outnumbering the good news, which are mostly fluffy stuff based on experts/feds opinions...
yet the market rises...
there's an old chinese saying... you can't wrap a fire with paper.
i call this "recovery" bluff. possibly the biggest bear rally in the history of mankind.
the bad news, based on facts, keep mounting everyday, outnumbering the good news, which are mostly fluffy stuff based on experts/feds opinions...
yet the market rises...
there's an old chinese saying... you can't wrap a fire with paper.
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Recession Nearly Over?, by Daniel Silk on May 6, 2009 17:25:01 GMT 1, Stacey, I agree 100% with what your saying, and dint say anything different
Stacey, I agree 100% with what your saying, and dint say anything different |
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Recession Nearly Over?, by wiz on May 6, 2009 17:52:40 GMT 1, I wish someone would tell the two buyers of the two houses that i have chased recently that its still on, they both went for more than ap. and one didnt even make it to the land agent! (i do realise this may not be the case nationwide). Also in my opinion Gordon Brown is a nob.
I wish someone would tell the two buyers of the two houses that i have chased recently that its still on, they both went for more than ap. and one didnt even make it to the land agent! (i do realise this may not be the case nationwide). Also in my opinion Gordon Brown is a nob.
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its sad to say, but the more of those that close down the better for the rest in the long run.
we should only be left with well run and forward thinking companies ;D and with all the dead wood cut out of the market, they will grow and start employing the people who lost their jobs with the other companies.
but now we are all gonna pay for it for decades to come.
