|
|
Donald Trump, by its all about me on Oct 29, 2024 16:28:09 GMT 1, Indeed these are peoples bets, and whilst I agree it certainly has its limitations to use in modelling (overreaction to events, herd behaviour and small sample size), they have historically had strengths when used complimentary to polls (monetary incentives, wisdom of crowds and real time information). One other metric to keep an eye on is the US 10y treasury, imho this is a much more telling metric because big finance is the backbone of a modern day western nation - the 10y seems to be pricing Trump at greater than 50/50, in line with a ~60/40. Eitherway, im more interested in the UKs budget this week! The betting sites reflect non US bets. Biggest better turns out to be French with a 45m bet on trump. These are momentum based. regardless, by all metrics trump is set to win this election. it has nothing to do with the headlines that you probably see repeated ((the US is no more racist or fascist than it used to be). it is mainly a rejection of the current administration and people being unhappy with the current state of the country. Kamala dropped the ball. we will be fine either way.
Nearly all polls suggest they are neck and neck. Trump or Harris could easily win on the day.
This gives some good data and graphs...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo
Indeed these are peoples bets, and whilst I agree it certainly has its limitations to use in modelling (overreaction to events, herd behaviour and small sample size), they have historically had strengths when used complimentary to polls (monetary incentives, wisdom of crowds and real time information). One other metric to keep an eye on is the US 10y treasury, imho this is a much more telling metric because big finance is the backbone of a modern day western nation - the 10y seems to be pricing Trump at greater than 50/50, in line with a ~60/40. Eitherway, im more interested in the UKs budget this week! The betting sites reflect non US bets. Biggest better turns out to be French with a 45m bet on trump. These are momentum based. regardless, by all metrics trump is set to win this election. it has nothing to do with the headlines that you probably see repeated ((the US is no more racist or fascist than it used to be). it is mainly a rejection of the current administration and people being unhappy with the current state of the country. Kamala dropped the ball. we will be fine either way. Not sure why you say..."by all metrics trump is set to win this election". Nearly all polls suggest they are neck and neck. Trump or Harris could easily win on the day. This gives some good data and graphs... www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo |
|
ck1
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 179
๐๐ป 192
August 2022
|
Donald Trump, by ck1 on Oct 29, 2024 17:29:21 GMT 1, The betting sites reflect non US bets. Biggest better turns out to be French with a 45m bet on trump. These are momentum based. regardless, by all metrics trump is set to win this election. it has nothing to do with the headlines that you probably see repeated ((the US is no more racist or fascist than it used to be). it is mainly a rejection of the current administration and people being unhappy with the current state of the country. Kamala dropped the ball. we will be fine either way. Not sure why you say..."by all metrics trump is set to win this election". Nearly all polls suggest they are neck and neck. Trump or Harris could easily win on the day. This gives some good data and graphs... www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo
Trump is ahead in almost all the battleground states.
Early vote results have trump performing better than 2020
Money in the market leaving bonds and moving to commodities and equity.
Betting markets (least predictive)
The betting sites reflect non US bets. Biggest better turns out to be French with a 45m bet on trump. These are momentum based. regardless, by all metrics trump is set to win this election. it has nothing to do with the headlines that you probably see repeated ((the US is no more racist or fascist than it used to be). it is mainly a rejection of the current administration and people being unhappy with the current state of the country. Kamala dropped the ball. we will be fine either way. Not sure why you say..."by all metrics trump is set to win this election". Nearly all polls suggest they are neck and neck. Trump or Harris could easily win on the day. This gives some good data and graphs... www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdoNeck and neck has always been a republican win. Democrats need to be ahead by at least 2% in the national polls to win based on the electoral distribution. Trump is ahead in almost all the battleground states. Early vote results have trump performing better than 2020 Money in the market leaving bonds and moving to commodities and equity. Betting markets (least predictive) |
|
|
|
Donald Trump, by its all about me on Oct 30, 2024 12:27:38 GMT 1, I don't know what I fear the most.
Trump wins - and he goes completely nuts.
Trump loses - and his fans go completely nuts.
There's no way Trump is going to admit defeat.
I don't know what I fear the most.
Trump wins - and he goes completely nuts.
Trump loses - and his fans go completely nuts.
There's no way Trump is going to admit defeat.
|
|
|
|
Donald Trump, by Happy Shopper on Oct 30, 2024 12:32:15 GMT 1, I don't know what I fear the most. Trump wins - and he goes completely nuts. Trump loses - and his fans go completely nuts. There's no way Trump is going to admit defeat.
I saw on the news last night that he's already saying he has such a clear lead that the only way he'll lose is if the vote is rigged. Setting things up nicely for rioting.
Who votes for this loonatic?
I don't know what I fear the most. Trump wins - and he goes completely nuts. Trump loses - and his fans go completely nuts. There's no way Trump is going to admit defeat. I saw on the news last night that he's already saying he has such a clear lead that the only way he'll lose is if the vote is rigged. Setting things up nicely for rioting. Who votes for this loonatic? |
|
STP
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 321
๐๐ป 875
February 2022
|
Donald Trump, by STP on Oct 30, 2024 13:56:31 GMT 1, I don't know what I fear the most. Trump wins - and he goes completely nuts. Trump loses - and his fans go completely nuts. There's no way Trump is going to admit defeat. I saw on the news last night that he's already saying he has such a clear lead that the only way he'll lose is if the vote is rigged. Setting things up nicely for rioting. Who votes for this loonatic? He'll point to the ridiculous Republican-sponsored polls (such as the one posted earlier in this thread) as evidence that the election was rigged. That's why they've been paying companies for these polls for some time now - to build a case for yet another election subversion campaign should he lose.
He'll also point to large early leads in counted votes on election day, and declare victory just as he did last time with his 'stop the count' bollocks.
And it is bollocks, because it's actually what's known as the 'Red Mirage' - in pretty much every election Republicans take an early lead - because Republican votes tend to be counted before Democrat votes.
Votes are counted by precinct and Democrats tend to live in more densely populated urban precincts, while Republicans tend to live in more sparsely populated rural ones. It simply takes longer to count votes in a precinct with a lot of people. Additionally, Democrats are way more likely to vote by mail, and mail-in votes also take longer to count.
I don't know what I fear the most. Trump wins - and he goes completely nuts. Trump loses - and his fans go completely nuts. There's no way Trump is going to admit defeat. I saw on the news last night that he's already saying he has such a clear lead that the only way he'll lose is if the vote is rigged. Setting things up nicely for rioting. Who votes for this loonatic? He'll point to the ridiculous Republican-sponsored polls (such as the one posted earlier in this thread) as evidence that the election was rigged. That's why they've been paying companies for these polls for some time now - to build a case for yet another election subversion campaign should he lose.
He'll also point to large early leads in counted votes on election day, and declare victory just as he did last time with his 'stop the count' bollocks.
And it is bollocks, because it's actually what's known as the 'Red Mirage' - in pretty much every election Republicans take an early lead - because Republican votes tend to be counted before Democrat votes.
Votes are counted by precinct and Democrats tend to live in more densely populated urban precincts, while Republicans tend to live in more sparsely populated rural ones. It simply takes longer to count votes in a precinct with a lot of people. Additionally, Democrats are way more likely to vote by mail, and mail-in votes also take longer to count.
|
|
Londown 01
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 1,207
๐๐ป 1,009
September 2021
|
Donald Trump, by Londown 01 on Oct 31, 2024 9:35:16 GMT 1, Who votes for this loonatic?
I know some Trump voters and they are the loveliest people! Makes it even more puzzling ...
Who votes for this loonatic? I know some Trump voters and they are the loveliest people! Makes it even more puzzling ... |
|
|
|
|
|
Donald Trump, by My Name is Frank on Oct 31, 2024 9:42:47 GMT 1, I genuinely think that Trump wins this, he was going to beat Biden and as much as I hate to say it, I just dont think America is even there yet to vote a woman President, let alone a woman of colour. No conspiracies will be needed (hope I am wrong, but doubt it)
I genuinely think that Trump wins this, he was going to beat Biden and as much as I hate to say it, I just dont think America is even there yet to vote a woman President, let alone a woman of colour. No conspiracies will be needed (hope I am wrong, but doubt it)
|
|
mojo
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 2,174
๐๐ป 3,677
May 2014
|
Donald Trump, by mojo on Oct 31, 2024 9:51:05 GMT 1, Trick or Treat?
Trick or Treat?
|
|
Devizes /\_/\
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 680
๐๐ป 1,280
Member is Online
December 2021
|
Donald Trump, by Devizes /\_/\ on Oct 31, 2024 9:56:41 GMT 1, Who votes for this loonatic? I know some Trump voters and they are the loveliest people! Makes it even more puzzling ...
What makes either of them right? Thatโs the beauty of a democracy, both sides get a voice, whether you like it or not.
I do tend to find the left side of things whether itโs here in the UK or the states, name call and shout, stamp their feet etc a lot louder in the build up to elections and with the art world left of center it certainly proves it with the train of thought even on here.
But letโs all agree, theyโre all a bunch of c**t and none of them have you or iโs best interest at heart.
Who votes for this loonatic? I know some Trump voters and they are the loveliest people! Makes it even more puzzling ... Thereโll no doubt be Trump supporters looking at Harris supporters thinking the same thing. What makes either of them right? Thatโs the beauty of a democracy, both sides get a voice, whether you like it or not. I do tend to find the left side of things whether itโs here in the UK or the states, name call and shout, stamp their feet etc a lot louder in the build up to elections and with the art world left of center it certainly proves it with the train of thought even on here. But letโs all agree, theyโre all a bunch of c**t and none of them have you or iโs best interest at heart. |
|
|
|
Donald Trump, by its all about me on Nov 5, 2024 13:41:39 GMT 1, So the big day has arrived. Trump is already saying that if he loses the system is rigged. I can see a repeat of last time. Or it may even be worse this time around. Who knows. With his ego there is no way he will accept losing twice in a row. He would rather see America burn than accept defeat.
What's happened to America? It was never like this before Trump came on the scene.
So the big day has arrived. Trump is already saying that if he loses the system is rigged. I can see a repeat of last time. Or it may even be worse this time around. Who knows. With his ego there is no way he will accept losing twice in a row. He would rather see America burn than accept defeat.
What's happened to America? It was never like this before Trump came on the scene.
|
|
|
|
Donald Trump, by Happy Shopper on Nov 5, 2024 13:59:13 GMT 1, I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing.
You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense! 
I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing. You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense! |
|
drip
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 2,417
๐๐ป 5,059
February 2015
|
Donald Trump, by drip on Nov 5, 2024 14:24:05 GMT 1, I love how his whole thing is, "They're stealing the election! It's all rigged, they cheat!" and also, "Please vote for me, I'm begging you!"
And by "love", I mean I can't fucking stand it.
I love how his whole thing is, "They're stealing the election! It's all rigged, they cheat!" and also, "Please vote for me, I'm begging you!"
And by "love", I mean I can't fucking stand it.
|
|
STP
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 321
๐๐ป 875
February 2022
|
Donald Trump, by STP on Nov 5, 2024 14:38:16 GMT 1,
|
|
Fuzzyduck121
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 1,300
๐๐ป 1,223
December 2011
|
Donald Trump, by Fuzzyduck121 on Nov 5, 2024 15:00:26 GMT 1, I mean isnt it a given that Trump is getting in?
I mean isnt it a given that Trump is getting in?
|
|
|
|
Pawel
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 3,790
๐๐ป 3,268
June 2015
|
Donald Trump, by Pawel on Nov 5, 2024 15:29:18 GMT 1, I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing. You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense!
Most of my friends seems to be right wing and I'm so fired discussing politics with them that I'm just more tired than anything else. Most of them don't expect anything crazy from the man. If he wins I will be the major of " who could have predicted it?" town to quote Rick and Morty.
I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing. You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense! There's always room for arguing. Most of my friends seems to be right wing and I'm so fired discussing politics with them that I'm just more tired than anything else. Most of them don't expect anything crazy from the man. If he wins I will be the major of " who could have predicted it?" town to quote Rick and Morty. |
|
|
|
Donald Trump, by DAVID HOCKNEY on Nov 5, 2024 15:30:46 GMT 1, 
|
|
Dinin
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 62
๐๐ป 35
December 2022
|
Donald Trump, by Dinin on Nov 5, 2024 15:55:59 GMT 1, I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing. You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense!
I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing. You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense! A lot of those women are Republican Christians, and a lot of those Latino's, especially in Florida, have fled Communist countries like Cuba and Venezuela. They will not vote Democrat in a month of Sundays. The Dems have done such a bad job of learning from their losses in this century that the biggest thing they have in their favour (much like Labour here in the UK) is fatigue. |
|
|
|
Donald Trump, by Happy Shopper on Nov 5, 2024 16:24:25 GMT 1, I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing. You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense! a lot of those Latino's, especially in Florida, have fled Communist countries like Cuba and Venezuela. They will not vote Democrat in a month of Sundays.
I don't see it happening, but all we can hope for is that Kamala wins by such a large margin that there's no room for arguing. You'd assume the female and latino vote would destroy him, but nothing in the US makes any sense! a lot of those Latino's, especially in Florida, have fled Communist countries like Cuba and Venezuela. They will not vote Democrat in a month of Sundays. That those 2 things are linked shows how nuts the US is. As if Democrats are anywhere near being Communists! |
|
qest
New Member
๐จ๏ธ 619
๐๐ป 713
March 2018
|
Donald Trump, by qest on Nov 5, 2024 16:27:43 GMT 1, Filed under "False equivalence"
Filed under "False equivalence" |
|
Smokeidaeye
Junior Member
๐จ๏ธ 1,169
๐๐ป 1,388
January 2019
|
Donald Trump, by Smokeidaeye on Nov 5, 2024 19:08:22 GMT 1, I had to break out my UAA t-shirt before going to vote today.
I had to break out my UAA t-shirt before going to vote today. |
|
